Kyoto Protocol 2012 targets are not likely to be met

The Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012, requires that 37 countries decrease emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by an average 5 percent from 1990 levels. However, the only reason that emissions under the Kyoto Protocol are showing a decrease, according to the U.N., is the economic collapse of the 1990s in much of Eastern European and . The economic collapse of , , , and other Eastern European countries means that as a whole these countries are 1.29 billion tons below their 1990 emission levels as of 2006. In contrast, emission levels of the more advanced industrialized nations has climbed 894 billion tons over the same period. From 2000 to 2006, the 41 nations considered most responsible for climate change under the treaty increased their emissions by 2.3%. However, sweeping generalities hide many differences amongst various states. For example, the emerging economies of and are 37% below 1990 levels. , which had committed to a 6% decrease by 2012, increased its emissions 6.2% between 1990 and 2006. agreed also to a 6% cut, but has increased its emissions 21.3% between 1990 and 2006. agreed to 6.5% cut by 2012, but its emissions have increased 9.9% through 2006. The agreed to a 12.5% cut, and has reduced its emissions by 15.9%. committed to keeping its emissions flat, but has cut them by 4%. was allowed a 4% increase under Kyoto , but has decreased emissions by 8.9%. The U.N. report can be found at http://unfccc.int/press/items/2794.php. Since, as noted, the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012, negotiators from 190 countries agreed a year ago to complete a new global warming treaty by the end of 2009 that would allegedly force governments to reduce carbon emissions. That deadline now appears unlikely to be met. Delegates from nearly all the world's nations have been meeting since Monday in the Polish city of Poznan to assess progress toward the new treaty, but comments by meeting participants and press reports suggest that it is doubtful one can be finalized by the next climate meeting in December 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark.