The Bureau of Labor Statistics is making what some in the legal profession might consider to be bold predictions about attorney employment through 2018. The bureau's 2010-11 Occupational Outlook Handbook predicts that attorney employment will grow 13 percent during the ten year period of 2008-2018. This level of growth is right on par with the average for all occupations. Considering recent job losses and layoffs in the field, and a percentage of legal work now being sent off-shore, the bureau still sees an increase in legal transactions and lawyers to handle them:
"Growth in the population and in the level of business activity is expected to create more legal transactions, civil disputes, and criminal cases. Job growth among lawyers also will result from increasing demand for legal services in such areas as healthcare, intellectual property, bankruptcy, corporate and security litigation, antitrust law, and environmental law. In addition, the wider availability and affordability of legal clinics should result in increased use of legal services by middle-income people. However, growth in demand for lawyers will be constrained as businesses increasingly use large accounting firms and paralegals to perform some of the same functions that lawyers do. For example, accounting firms may provide employee-benefit counseling, process documents, or handle various other services previously performed by a law firm. Also, mediation and dispute resolution are increasingly being used as alternatives to litigation.
Job growth for lawyers will continue to be concentrated in salaried jobs as businesses and all levels of government employ a growing number of staff attorneys. Most salaried positions are in urban areas where government agencies, law firms, and big corporations are concentrated. The number of self-employed lawyers is expected to grow slowly, reflecting the difficulty of establishing a profitable new practice in the face of competition from larger, established law firms. Moreover, the growing complexity of the law, which encourages specialization, along with the cost of maintaining up-to-date legal research materials, favors larger firms."
It's no surprise to any attorney that the report goes on to note competition for jobs will be tough because of the large number of new graduates looking for work each year. Alternate careers are becoming more popular for lawyers, the report adds, "Perhaps as a result of competition for attorney positions, lawyers are increasingly finding work in less traditional areas for which legal training is an asset, but not normally a requirement-for example, administrative, managerial, and business positions in banks, insurance firms, real estate companies, government agencies, and other organizations. Employment opportunities are expected to continue to arise in these organizations at a growing rate."
The report acknowledges the impact of the economy on the profession and states that while certain types of legal services deemed discretionary, such as estate planning and certain real estate transactions may decline while recessions bring about the need for more attorneys to handle bankruptcies, foreclosures and divorces.
The Bureau reports the median annual income for wage and salaried lawyers was $110,590 in 2008, and provided this breakdown:
At the same time, for lawyers who had just graduated, the median salary nine months after graduation was $68,500.
Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-2011 Edition