Make More Rain : blog, inventory management

Why the Year End Collection Push is Not a Best Practice

Admin — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 16:38:57 GMT

It is that time of year again, at least for the early starters, when the legal industry begins its preparations for the year end collection push. The push has become an industry standard and buzz word over time. Each year countless hours are put into collecting massive amounts of receivables every December in order to meet targeted numbers. Although it is a foregone conclusion that there will be a year end push for most law firms, is this really a best practice?

The “ideal” approach with respect to legal industry inventory management is to have a continual billing and collections push year round, so everyone can enjoy the holiday season without worrying about making a budgeted target for collections. Although ideal, given the history of the industry, this is unfortunately a practice that will take time to implement. Even if that happens, the remains of the year end push might still have legs. For most firms both lawyers and, more importantly, their clients are used to and expect a year end push. It is a behavioral pattern that is established and therefore not going away anytime soon. That said there are negative ramifications to such a practice and a few firms have recognized this and smoothed out their collection pattern.

Client Behavior

The first obvious detriment to a year end collection push is the impact on client behavior. If clients expect a year end collection push then they are less apt to pay within a consistent, timely manner. Some clients even have said to relationship attorneys who have tried to smooth out the process, “Why pay now if I know you are just going to look for more in December.” In fairness to the client I would probably hold on until December as well. For example, if my mortgage company let me pay all of my mortgage payments in December, I would do so - which brings me to my next detriment of the push, the Time Value of Money impact.

Time Value of Money

A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow, so everyday a firm does not collect on a receivable they are foregoing the opportunity of re-investment. In my previous mortgage company example, I would take all of the money I owe the mortgage company invest it in some sort of portfolio that would give me a return on that money which would go straight to my pocket instead of the mortgage company. That is the same thing that occurs with the year end collection push within the legal industry: Investment income is left on the table as receivables age.

Aging Inventory

The next 2 problems are more internally focused within each firm. Not only can the collections push can have a negative impact on client behavior, it can as well with attorneys . A colleague of mine wrote a blog back in June on “Valuing your Firm’s Inventory” which I encourage everyone to read as it outlines how, as receivables age, the likelihood of realizing the original amount of those receivables diminishes. Since attorneys also exhibit the behavior of letting work age before it is billed, and billings age before they are collected, the probability of billing or collecting the original work/bill amount goes down.

Other obvious detriments include the ability to know where you are to your budgeted numbers as the year goes along, and how to budget for next year given a lack of information on your collections; a final drawback of the year end collection push is the impact on the age of your inventory. In the graph below, you can see three years worth of inventory pushes. There is a significant drop in balance each December (as depicted in the bar graph), but you can also see a spike in the age of inventory. Why does this occur?

I ask many of the firms I work with and they almost always point to the answer: At year end, with pressure to make budgeted goals, most of the collection effort is on receivables that firms know they can collect and are more recent in nature. Therefore, the older inventory that has been aging over the years continues to get older and may get to a point where it is completely uncollectable. This is an unfortunate side effect of the collection push and one that should be accounted for in any inventory management strategy.

Although I have gone over many reasons why the year end collection push is not a best practice, I am not blind to the fact that it is not easy to make a quick switch to a continual inventory management process. So given that the “ideal” practice is not a readily accessible current option, are there things firms can do to prepare and approach the year end billing and collection push to try to maximize its result while working on the before mentioned strategy shift ? The first suggestion is start billing early –nothing earth shattering. With most firms you see an upward trend in periodic billings in October and November. That trend should start in the 3^rd quarter, and those firms that have a more gradual collection slope in the last few months also have an increased slope in billings from August until November. The easy explanation to this is that billing is a more controllable portion of the inventory cycle than its counterpart. In the example below, you can see such steep a slope in each of the prior 2 year end pushes where as in the last year that billing was much more gradual and steady as the end of the year approached.

The natural benefit is that by getting the built up WIP out the door in a timely manner will give you the ability to focus on collections for a longer period.

The firms that I have worked with who have had the most success with respect to WIP management are those that have some stipulation on billing in a timely manner when it comes to their partner compensation. Knowing that many firms cannot simply switch their compensation system on a dime, this type of action is not widespread, but it is a proven method. Each firm has seen an improvement in inventory management when a portion of partner compensation has been tied to that driver. “Compensation” in this regard can be defined as a direct input into the partner compensation equation or, alternately, can equate to monetary “fines” for late billing and/or collections.

It may be inevitable within current industry conditions that December will be the month with the most collections. Again, it is in the best interest of the firm to change the status quo and begin collecting earlier and in a timely manner. Not only will you be able to have a better idea of where you will stand to budget sooner, but it will set your firm up for budgeting the next year. Still, if focus can be put on opportunity balances (those that have aged past an expected pay time) early in the process it may help avoid the side effect of the ever aging inventory. Those older balances can have the focus early on and perhaps generate collections while in December the focus can shift to the more readily available receivables.

I certainly hope that as time goes along the year end collection push will lose its luster as a buzz word and be replaced with continual inventory management. At the end of the year the firms that take this to heart just may see increased realizations, additional investment income, and perhaps most importantly a little more piece of mind that you are on target and can enjoy the holiday season.

- Posted by Russ Haskin

Valuing Your Firm's Inventory

Admin — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 17:16:24 GMT

Most law firms understand intuitively that the value of inventory (both WIP and A/R) degrades over time, but by how much and how quickly? The ability to understand and answer these two questions is the first step in preparing a realistic, forward looking valuation model; one that can identify opportunities and drive action, rather than simply report on past performance.

To begin to answer the question of the future value of current inventory, it is important to realize there are two different forces diminishing a firm’s return on work performed, and both have the same basis: time. In essence the old adage “Time is Money” is true; as time passes, your inventory becomes less valuable.

The first and most basic of the two forces is widely known and easily calculated. For our purposes, we will call it the Time Value of Money effect, or TVM. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Anyone who has ever used a credit card, carried a mortgage, or borrowed or lent money in any fashion, understands this concept. However, many law firms simply disregard this as a cost against their inventory, or use such a low discount rate, as to make it negligible. When considering a firm’s discount rate, too often factors such as reasonable market expectations of returns and inflation are swept aside. In the model below we use a simple method (with two different Discount Rates) to determine the cost of time on a firm’s inventory: Amount X Daily Discount Rate X Open Days; where the Daily Discount Rate = Yearly Discount Rate/365 days.

The second, and in most cases much larger charge to your inventory, is what we will call the risk of default (this refers to both defaulting on receivables and not billing work in progress). This is the risk that a firm will not realize a portion, or the entirety, of the value of work performed. In most cases it is instinctively understood that receivables a year old are far less likely to be realized than those just billed. The same can be said for WIP. But how do we measure this concept? One possible way (and there are many) is to use available historical billing and payment patterns to develop a forward expectation curve. We can then apply this curve to our current inventory to determine the amount that is realistically likely to bill or collect. This method can be made more complex or simple depending on various assumptions and the level at which the expectation curve is developed to (i.e. practice group, type of work, client, etc) but the concept remains the same -- past performance is an indication of future performance.

In the example below, such a curve is constructed for a client based on a set period of time and then applied to four matters with outstanding A/R (a similar model can be built for the WIP side). A total of $200,000 has been billed over the life of this client, with $175,000 eventually being realized (or 87.5% seen at day 0). As might be expected, the majority of the collections (> 50%) have historically taken place within the first 90 days. The Fwd A/R Expectation Curve helps quantify the expectation of collection (or non-collection) as current A/R ages based on prior practices (i.e. at 240 days, $50,000 has been available to collect, but only $25,000 has been collected, giving us a historical realization expectation of 50%; therefore, if current A/R now ages to 240 days, we would expect to realize 50% and lose 50%). Of course, like any forecast, our model will not be 100% correct at each level of granularity, but it does provide a logical, and historically proven, method to value inventory, particularly at the firm level.

While simplified, the models above allow us a better understanding of a) how much of the work we have currently performed we expect to realize and b) the actual value of that work once we do realize it. Any questions, concerns, or comments on the above can be directed to Dschutz@redwoodanalytics.com.

Forecasting Collections and Inventory Management

Admin — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 07:00:51 GMT

In today’s unstable environment, driven by outside economic forces, higher associate salaries, and increased competition, law firm leaders are faced with the tough job of forecasting cash collections. Many existing forecast methodologies focus on production and collection realization. However, these models often fall short because they ignore the other drivers of collections, and do not provide any information about collections beyond the forecast period. A better model:

1) Forecasts bills and collections as they relate to inventory levels thus allowing analysis into the impact of the next period’s collection funnel,

2) Drives the forecast according to the speed of the billing and collection cycle,

3) Isolates the quality of inventory separate from collection timing by analyzing realizations at the time of collection.

A key aspect to understanding collections is to think of the process as an inventory funnel. Each month production is added to the funnel, increasing inventory available to bill and collect. At the same time, bills and collections, as well as write downs and write offs drain the funnel, thus reducing inventory levels available next period. By analyzing this inventory turnover, modelers can focus on the drivers of collections: beginning inventory, production, inventory turnover, and realizations. Consider the following example:

	Last Year		Forecast
Beginning Inventory	$50,000		$60,000
Production	$150,000		$170,000
Total Available for Collection	$200,000		$230,000
Written down/off	$10,000		$11,000
Cash Collected	$130,000		$150,000	(3)
Inventory Turnover	$140,000		$161,000	(4)
Ending Inventory	$60,000		$69,000

Inventory Turnover %	70%	(1)
Realization %	93%	(2)

1) Inventory Turnover/Total Available for Collection

2) Cash Collected/Inventory Turnover

3) Total Available for Collection * Last Year’s Inventory Turnover %

4) Inventory Turnover * Last Year’s Realization %

In this model, the total available for collection is beginning inventory plus production. By comparing the amount available for collection and the ending inventory, the modeler may derive the inventory turnover. Also, by looking at the type of turnover, collected vs. written down or off, the modeler can calculate realization. Applying Inventory Turnover % and Realization % to future inventory, produces a cash collected forecast based on all of the cash drivers mentioned above and provides a starting point for the next period.

Redwood Analytics has helped law firms forecast collections using this and other methodologies since its inception. Our Business of Law Consultants are prepared to help law firm leaders take their forecasting to the next level by sharing best practices forecasting techniques, separating inventory turnover for billing and collection cycles, and capturing the seasonality of collections. In addition, our business intelligence solution is uniquely positioned to help law firms not only improve their forecast, but also their actual results.