Make More Rain : planning, economic outlook

Law Firm PEPP "Bubble" To Burst?

Admin — Fri, 09 May 2008 07:00:24 GMT

Since 2000, law firm PEPP (profits per equity partner) have increased on average 11% for Amlaw 100 firms and 8% for Amlaw 200 firms. Some observers fear that, like other markets that have sustained growth periods at or near double digits in the past 10 years, the law firm partner profit "bubble" may soon burst as well.

Looking at Amlaw 200 data, PEPP increased by 2% in 2001. In 2002, the increase was 7%. 2003 saw an increase of 11%, 8% in 2004 and 2005, and 10% in 2006.

This increase doesn't only apply to Amlaw 200 firms. Looking at the differences from 2005 and 2006 for the top respondent firms in the Law Firm Economic Survey by Juris Inc. and LexisNexis, respectively (the only two years available), firm PEPP increased 11%. It is likely that most firms in the mid-market and small market increased incomes by respectable if not similar percentages over the same period.

What can you do to prepare for a stunt in the growth (or decline) of PEPP? Bruce MacEwen posted an article May 5th on his blog Adam Smith Esq., titled A "Bubble" in PPP? that looks at some short term ideas to help "mitigate the downward trend" and predicts a change in the las firm business model over the long term:

Short term ideas:

Redeploy lawyers in troubled practice areas to healthier ones;
Use the opportunity of "shared pain" with your key clients to get closer to them;
Adroitly stand by while the normal waves of attrition take their toll;
Build or at least safeguard capacity in selected practice areas that you anticipate will emerge strongly from the downturn;
And always, always, keep a sharp eye on costs--although, truth be told, you don't have much material flexibility here. You're not moving your offices to Brooklyn and you're not paying less than market for partners and associates.

Long term predictions:

the billable hour, lamented by many but eliminated by few, will eventually replaced with a more "value-based" model, though MacEwen stresses that he is not "holding [his] breath" on this;
the traditional associate/partner model changes to include more non-equity partners and more contract attorneys;
at least fundamentally, "the core processes by which law firms manage cases and deals must and will change" (ie, more project management, more team philosophy centered around practice groups to become more efficient).

Ultimately, MacEwen believes that due to increased demand (at least for Amlaw 100 firms), finding work won't be the problem. However, he sees the traditional model as being unsustainable based on the limits placed on things such as productivity (>2,400 hours?), rates (>$1,000 per hour?)and realization (>100%?). Because of this, if PEPP does suffer a downturn for an extended period of time, the long predicted changes to law firm dynamics may happen.

If this occurs in large law firms, it is incumbent on smaller firms to adapt quickly. The predictions above are all point towards efficiency that allow firm profits to increase through efficiency rather than increased rates and worked hours. Much has bee written about the "unmanageability of law firms". Despite this, firms have continued to make exceptional profits - due in no small part to their enviable margins. With good management, law firms can see profits that far exceed anything that firms receive currently. And if partner profits start decreasing, your firm will be in crisis - just as it is not a good idea to go to the grocery store on an empty stomach, it isn't a good time to contemplate an overhaul in processes during a crisis.

Much of the allure of smaller firms is quality service at a lower price. Some large firm partners charge rates in excess of $1,000 per hour. If large firms realize they can offer similar services at lower prices and still increase profits, smaller firms can be squeezed out of the marketplace.

Think Walmart. As Walmart entered the scene, small businesses were unable to compete based on their lack of purchase power. Walmart could offer more product selection at a lower price. Home Depot and Lowes did the same to small hardware stores. The small shops that survived did so by using their secret weapon - customer service and personal engagement. Still, you won't find many of these shops who don't struggle on a monthly basis and have to watch as their clients often come to them for advice, then go to Home Depot to buy the big-ticket items.

For small and mid-size firms to compete in this changed environment, they will have to embrace workflow efficiencies that meet or exceed that of the larger firms - and use their "secret weapons" of personal engagement with clients and responsiveness. However, without the fundamentals of an efficient business in place, your firm will suffer under the weight of your processes.

There will always be individual clients available, but more dependable sources of income often come from business clients and their leaders. These clients are already demanding more cost certainty. If larger firms are able to provide this value to business clients first at a price that isn't so different than yours, your firm may be in trouble.

The time to act is now.

Planning Helps Law Firms Weather A Bad Economy

Admin — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 08:00:00 GMT

Although the housing market has grabbed headlines recently as the credit issues continue to unravel, the indicators have been present for several years. The businesses who planned for this are now in a better position to adjust and prosper while other businesses close their doors.

Law firms aren't insulated to market downturns. The New York firm Thacher Proffitt & Wood "informed around 50 associates that their futures at the firm were uncertain because of the collapse of the market for mortgage-backed securities, an area where the firm had had a leading practice." New York Lawyer, 11/28/2007. CitiBank and Hildebrandt released a Client Advisory predicting the "perfect storm" of indicators hurting the legal industry.

It doesn't have to be this way. The firm can retain talent even when the marketplace shifts by planning not just for economic good times but for bad times as well. How?

Retain Earnings
Rather than distribute every dollar of profit, project into the future and if indicators suggest that there may be a drop in business in a particular practice area, allocate additional funds to maintain your marketing budget and talent retention.

Prepare for the upswing
Have associates hit the road with partners to build and maintain relationships in the industry. If your client survives the poor economy it will come back stronger. Cement those relationships while mentoring associates so that when the market comes back, your firm has already done the legwork to expand the business.

Transfer Knowledge
Forms are gold, especially in document-driven industries making up transactional practices. Have associates review all firm forms against available case law and take the opportunity to build a solid foundation of accurate and up-to-date forms. Offer an incentive to create "products" representing reproducible work.

Help with the overflow
Just because one industry is hurting that doesn’t mean other areas of the firm aren’t thriving. Give associates an opportunity to absorb work from the more active areas of law. In fact, a firm recently did this when Dechert, LLP, initially layed off 13 associates, then changed its mind and re-assigned them to other practice areas.

Some associates won't have the sufficient motivation to change. That is fine. Keep the ones who do.

Morepartnerincome.com is sponsored by Juris®. For information about Juris products and services for increasing law firm performance and partner income contact Juris National Sales Center:

877/377-3740, e-mail info@juris.com or go to www.Juris.com.

When An Attorney Doesn't Fit The Firm

Admin — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 08:00:00 GMT

A recent article in the New York Lawyer entitled "Getting Fired" (requires free registration to view content) addresses a task that all managers would prefer not to have as part of their responsibilities: that of releasing employees.

The article is geared to the attorney as releasee, helping them not miss the subtle ways they are "shown the horizon".

If a conversation starts: “You seem to be distracted lately, and we are concerned that maybe this isn’t the right fit for you anymore.” - you might be getting fired.

If a conversation starts: “We think maybe you would be happier somewhere else. Let’s reassess where you are in six months. Hopefully, by then you will have found the right opportunity.” - you might be getting fired.

Suggestions when hearing words like the above? Start job hunting. In the second example, the firm is clearly giving the attorney a 6 month notice to find other employment. It isn't likely that the firm is going to reassess the attorney's performance in 6 months. More likely they will have had a replacement for 2 months and will be ready for the performance-challenged attorney to go.

Although geared to those near the door, it is also a reminder to managers of their responsibility to the firm. No one likes to fire someone, but without that part of the employment cycle, those who drag down the margin won't change. This helps neither the firm nor the employee. Not fitting into your firm culture doesn't mean the attorney is not a quality attorney. It means the attorney is not a good fit for your firm.

As the article noted, "[t]here is another . . .firm out there just waiting to snap you up! They love laterals!"

Morepartnerincome.com is sponsored by Juris®. For information about Juris products and

services for increasing law firm performance and partner income contact Juris National Sales Center:

877/377-3740, e-mail info@juris.com or go to www.Juris.com.