Home – Election 2016 Remains Unpredictable Even as Candidates Prepare for Battleground Primaries

Election 2016 Remains Unpredictable Even as Candidates Prepare for Battleground Primaries

Posted on 03-11-2016 by Megan Burnside

Predicting the outcome of this election is like trying to sneeze with your eyes open; it can’t be done. As the candidates prepare for primaries in Ohio and Florida—two big battleground states whose delegates are up for grabs on March 15—media coverage, polls*, social media continue to predict different outcomes.

In Ohio, for instance, John Kasich has drawn even with Donald Trump for his share of votes—from zero to two percent separates Ohio’s governor from the business tycoon in Monday polls. Yet Kasich is third in media coverage of the Republican candidates, securing less ink than both The Donald and Ted Cruz and beating Marco Rubio by just over one percent share of voice. (You would think that in his home state, Kasich would have more of a media following!)

 

Candidates-R

Share of Vote (OH)

Share of Voice (OH)

Donald Trump

38%

40.01%

John Kasich

38%

19.61%

Ted Cruz

16%

22.10%

Marco Rubio

3%

18.28%

Candidates-D

Share of Vote (OH)

Share of Voice (OH)

Hillary Clinton

51%

56.72%

Bernie Sanders

46%

43.28%

 

In Florida, the share of vote and share of voice are closer for Kasich and Rubio, as noted below. The same is true of the Democratic candidates. Is this an indication that Florida media is just more tuned in to what voters want to read about and watch? Or is this just a happy accident?

 

Candidates-R

Share of Vote (FL)

Share of Voice (FL)

Donald Trump

46%

41.70%

Marco Rubio

22%

24.85%

Ted Cruz

14%

22.91%

John Kasich

10%

10.55%

Candidates-D

Share of Vote (FL)

Share of Voice (FL)

Hillary Clinton

60%

63.85%

Bernie Sanders

34%

36.15%

 

Meanwhile, over on social media, Trump and Sanders continue to dominate Election 2016 social media conversations, with Hillary and Cruz taking distant third and fourth places. 

Election 2016 has already produced its fair share of surprises, thanks in part to unpredictable polling, wild media coverage, debate antics and candidate histrionics. For a full breakdown of media coverage from the election cycle, connect with us on Twitter @LexisNexisBiz.

Updated: Projected share of vote based on polling information from Real Clear Politics, as of 3/14/2016

3 Ways to Apply This Information Now

  1. Explore more media analysis of the election season on our U.S. Presidential Campaign Tracker.
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