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    Voting Across America

    Most of us are used to polling stations being located in schools, firehouses and the like. But what about a Vietnamese restaurant? Or a laundromat? If that isn’t high end enough, would the Beverly Hills Hotel do? Too hoity-toity, you say? Perhaps a McDonald’s would be better for you. If this all sounds fanciful, it isn’t. As Governing reports, all of these and more have been polling stations in recent years. Given the nature of this election, maybe we should have had a few placed in sewage treatment plants.

     

    -- By RICH EHISEN

    Is Social Media Hinting at Who May Win the Presidential Election?

    The race is tight, so coloring in the electoral map has proven to be an arduous task. Media monitoring and social media analysis may help to color in some of those states by providing a glimpse into voter sentiment and enthusiasm that polls might not capture. Take a look at a guest blog post brought to you by the Applied Policy Research Institute from Wright State University. 


    In the Wake of A Volatile Week, Another Look at the Battleground States

    By James Mainord and Sarah Ammar 

    As our previous coverage noted -- and recapped in another brief here -- sentiment (and largely polling as well), took a sizable positive turn for Hillary Clinton in early October. This correlates especially with the final debate and with the now infamous audio-tape of Donald Trump and Billy Bush. 

    However, this momentum was short-lived for Clinton in the polls, especially following last week's letter sent from FBI Director James Comey to Congress regarding the investigation into Clinton's emails and we wondered if Twitter sentiment was echoing that trend. 

    A look at the general sentiment trend lines from October 27 to today indicate that they do. Clinton's sentiment took a significant dip around the time of the first Comey letter, sent on October 28. However, it appears to have rebounded at the outset of November. Even with that rebound though, if sentiment were a predictor, the overall closeness would be "too close to call."

     twitter sentiment chart

    This could be especially important because, if the race is tightening as indicated by this data from Cognovi and from polls and modeling like that of Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, then the battleground states are that much more critical. 

    The Starting Line

    Based on polling, early voting patterns, past electoral history and Cognovi Labs Data, this map represents the minimum electoral votes on which both candidates can likely rely on for election day. 

     Electoral map - swing states

    That leaves 14 states up for grabs, or 211 electoral votes. That's enough of a margin that either candidate has a mathematical chance at securing enough electoral votes to win the Presidency. 

    Candidate........Likely Votes........Votes Needed

    Clinton.............201......................69

    Trump..............126......................144

    The "Toss Ups"

    The remainder of this analysis focuses on the "toss up" states in the map, and examines Cognovi data in these states from October 27-November 4, 2016. 

    This chart, and corresponding table looks at these states, and what the electoral outcome would be if sentiment were both predictive and the only predictive measure. 

    A Layer Deeper

    In many races where polling and sentiment data are tight, we take a look at one layer deeper, where emotion and tweet volume can reveal additional insights. Below are some examples. 

    Texas

    The sentiment graph below illustrates how close sentiment is in Texas. Though Clinton holds a sentiment lead, it's very slight. When sentiment doesn't provide a clear reading, emotion and posting volume data provide an additional layer of insight. 

    Georgia

    Similar to Texas, Georgia is very close when looking only at sentiment. 

    Emotion distribution provides insight into the level of enthusiasm. Negative emotion toward Clinton (30%) and positive emotion toward Trump (24%) comprise 54% of the emotions expressed. To further highlight Clinton’s challenge in Georgia, a higher percentage of negative emotion is expressed toward her than her percentage of tweet distribution (which also takes neutral or non-expressive tweets into account).

    Cognovi believes that it’s likely that Georgia’s electoral votes go to Trump when taking into account emotion distribution, tight
    sentiment, Georgia’s voting history, and polling data.

    North Carolina

    North Carolina appears safer for Clinton than the other two states. She holds a full percentage point sentiment lead and the other metrics look encouraging for her.

    Volume distribution in North Carolina deviates from other states as Clinton is getting a larger proportion than in previous states. This also corresponds with a positive emotion expressed toward her (12%) and negative emotion toward Trump (41%). 

    Though 53% of tweets expressing emotion are either anti-Trump or Pro-Clinton, enthusiasm for Trump is significant at 33%.

    Florida

    Sentiment in Florida is very close. Emotion and volume distribution closely mirrors Texas. 25% of tweets express positive emotion toward Trump, so there is strong enthusiasm. Conversely, negative emotion toward him is almost double at 49%.

    That Florida is so close emphasizes the necessity of continued monitoring leading up to the polls closing. Cognovi will utilize open source and internal data to ensure an informed analysis.

    James Mainord is the CEO of Cognovi Labs, an Ikove Venture Partners Startup Nursery Portfolio Company. 
    Sarah Ammar is the Senior Strategist for the Applied Policy Research Institute. 


    3 Ways to Apply This Information Now

    1. You can impact the election. Get out there and vote this coming Tuesday!
    2. Explore some of the other media-monitoring posts here on the Biz Blog and learn more about media monitoring!
    3. Learn about how this year's election affects litigation, regulation, and corporate deal-making across the U.S. and around the globe with Law360's full-spectrum coverage



    Trump Coattails Carry Legislators But Not Ballot Measures

     The white rural voters who helped propel Donald Trump to his stunning victory in the presidential race and enabled Republicans to keep their majorities in both houses of Congress on Nov. 8 may have helped some GOP candidates further down-ticket too, with Democrats having failed to make the state legislative gains that had been predicted for them. But there seems to have been even less of a coattail effect when it comes to the host of left-leaning ballot measures that were also contested.

     

    Heading into the election at least 18 legislative chambers in 13 states were considered vulnerable to a shift of party control, with the majority party’s margin 3 to 6 seats in seven of the chambers and just one or two seats in six. Twelve of those chambers were held by Republicans, while six were controlled by Democrats, giving the Democrats a clear opportunity to close the gap Republicans opened up in 2010, when they took control of 24 Democrat-controlled chambers, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

     

    But Democrats only managed to pick up four Republican-controlled chambers: Nevada’s House and Senate, New Mexico’s House and Washington’s Senate. Those gains give the Democrats control of both chambers in three additional states, at least numerically; Republicans will still have functional control of Washington’s Senate, with one Democrat caucusing with Republicans. The Senate in Connecticut – despite being another state won by Clinton - shifted from Democratic control to an 18-18 tie with Republicans, splitting control of that state’s Legislature between the two parties as well. (At press time New York’s Senate was also numerically tied with one race still too close to call, but the chamber will likely continue to be functionally controlled by a coalition of Republicans and a group of breakaway Democrats.) Three other Democrat-controlled chambers, Iowa’s Senate, Kentucky’s House and Minnesota’s Senate - the former two in states won by Trump - also flipped to the Republicans, shifting those three legislatures from split to GOP control.

     

    The net effect of those changes is that there are now a total of 32 legislatures controlled by Republicans, 14 controlled by Democrats and three split between the two parties. (For more about statehouse party control see Bird’s eye view.)

     

    “The [legislative candidates] fought to a draw in a 10-round fight,” NCSL’s Tim Storey told Lou Cannon, writing for RealClearPolitics. “The Republicans are still champions.”

     

    Democrats appear to have had better luck with the 154 statewide ballot measures that were also contested in 35 states on Election Day. Those measures included an unusually high number of left-leaning citizen initiatives, which Bloomberg’s Paul Dwyer attributed in part to frustration among liberals about the Republican’s dominance of state legislatures. Nearly three quarters of the measures were passed by voters, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Ballot Measures Database.

     

    Those voter approvals included citizen initiatives dealing with one of the most liberal issues on the ballot, marijuana legalization. All four of the measures seeking legalization of the drug for medical use passed, including the first in the South: Arkansas’ Issue 6 and Florida’s Amendment 2. And all but one of the five measures aimed at legalizing recreational use of the drug also passed, including California’s Proposition 64, approved by a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent. That measure in particular could give a major boost to the recreational marijuana movement - which had already scored victories in four states and the District of Columbia - given that California, the nation’s most populous state, was the first to legalize medical marijuana, in 1996, and 24 other states have taken that action since. Voters in Arizona, however, a state that voted Republican in every presidential election but one (Clinton v. Dole in 1996) since 1952, including last week’s contest, rejected a recreational marijuana measure there, Prop. 205, on a 52 percent to 48 percent vote.

     

    Voters in four states - Arizona, Colorado, Maine and Washington - passed initiatives increasing their respective minimum wage rates. And voters in South Dakota, which supported Trump by a nearly 30-point margin (61.5 percent to 31.7 percent), rejected a popular referendum (Referred Law 20) on legislation signed into law last year (SB 177) making workers under 18 ineligible for a minimum wage increase - from $7.25 per hour to $8.50 per hour - approved by the state’s voters in 2014 (Measure 18). The measure’s resounding defeat, by a vote of 71 percent to 29 percent, means those under 18 will remain at the higher wage rate.

     

    Three of the four gun control measures on state ballots also passed, including California’s Prop. 63, engineered by Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), which bans the sale of large-capacity magazines and requires background checks for ammunition purchases, as well as makes stealing a gun a felony and requires the reporting of lost or stolen firearms. But Maine voters rejected Question 3, providing for background checks for firearm sales or transfers between parties that are not licensed gun dealers.

     

    One of the highest-profile measures on California’s ballot, healthcare-related Prop. 61, failed on a 54 percent to 46 percent vote, defying an average of recent polls showing 69.5 percent support for the measure. The initiative, spurred by soaring drug prices, would have prohibited state agencies from paying more for prescription drugs than the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs pays for them. But pharmaceutical companies poured over $100 million into the campaign to defeat the initiative and managed to convince patient advocacy groups that the measure might force them to raise prices they charge the VA to deal with the cap.

     

    California voters also rejected Prop. 60, a health-related initiative that could only have appeared on California’s ballot, requiring actors in pornographic films to use condoms and requiring producers of such films to pay for actors’ vaccinations and medical exams. Opponents had argued that the measure would have forced the adult film industry out of the state.

     

    But California voters did pass another healthcare initiative, Prop. 52, requiring a two-thirds supermajority vote by the Legislature to amend a current law imposing fees on hospitals used to obtain federal matching funds and pay for Medi-Cal and other healthcare services. The measure, backed by the California Hospital Association, was actually intended for the state’s 2014 ballot but failed to qualify in time.

     

    Colorado voters, meanwhile, rejected Amendment 69, which would have created a state-run universal healthcare system funded through an additional 10 percent income tax. But they also passed Prop. 106, which will allow physician-assisted suicide for the terminally ill.

     

    There were numerous other left-leaning initiatives and referendums on state ballots, including measures banning the death penalty (California Prop. 62, which failed); protecting animal rights (Massachusetts Question 3, Montana I-177 and Oregon Measure 100, which passed, failed and passed, respectively); imposing election or campaign finance reforms (Maine Question 5, Missouri Amendment 2 and Washington Initiative 1464, which passed, passed and failed, respectively); upholding a ban on plastic grocery bags (California Prop. 67, which passed); and increasing or extending taxes (California Props. 55 and 56, Colorado Amendment 72, Maine Question 2, Missouri Constitutional Amendment 3 and Prop. A, North Dakota Initiated Statutory Measure 4, Oklahoma SQ 779, Oregon Measure 97, and Washington Initiative 732, all of which failed except the California and Maine measures).

     

    There were also a number of progressive ballot measures that were legislatively referred, such as California’s Prop. 58, eliminating the English-only immersion requirement for teaching non-English speakers in public schools, which passed by a margin of about 72 percent to 28 percent. And there were plenty of right-leaning issues on state ballots as well, including measures supporting the death penalty (California Prop. 66, which passed; Nebraska Referendum 426, which failed, but in doing so repealed a law banning the death penalty; and Oklahoma SQ 776, which passed); protecting the right to hunt and fish (Indiana Public Question 1 and Kansas Constitutional Amendment 1, both of which passed) or farm and ranch (Oklahoma State Question 777, which failed); granting constitutional authority to require voters to present ID at the polls (Missouri Constitutional Amendment 6, which passed); constitutionally enshrining the “right to work” without having to join a union (Alabama Amendment 8, which passed; and Virginia Question 1, which failed); allowing public money to be spent for religious purposes (Oklahoma SQ 790, which failed); and prohibiting expansion of sales and use taxes (Missouri Constitutional Amendment 4, which passed).

     

    There were also a handful of notable measures on state ballots with more ambiguous political leanings. For instance, Idaho’s HJR 5, which passed, will allow the state’s Legislature to approve or reject rules promulgated by state agencies. It was placed on the ballot by a vote of 62-3 in the House, which has 56 Republicans but also 14 Democrats, and 34-1 in the Senate, split 28 to 7 between the two parties, according to LexisNexis State Net’s legislative tracking database. Colorado’s Amendment 71, which also passed, will increase the signature requirement for ballot initiatives to 2 percent of each Senate district and require 55-percent voter support to pass constitutional amendments. It was supported by Gov. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, but also by former Gov. Bill Owens, a Republican.

     

    But it’s the successful left-leaning initiatives - the product of “liberals’ frustration” - that may be the sole consolation for Democrats in an election in which the races at the top of the ticket didn’t go at all their way.

     

    Republicans Maintain Statehouse Dominance

     Going into the Nov. 8 election, Republicans controlled both chambers of the legislature in 30 states, while Democrats controlled both chambers in 12, and 7 statehouses were split between the two parties. (Nebraska’s Legislature is technically nonpartisan.) Democrats scored one major victory on Election Day with both chambers in Nevada flipping from Republican to Democratic control. Legislatures in two states, New Mexico and Washington, also shifted from split to Democratic control. But Connecticut’s General Assembly switched from Democratic to split control, and three other state legislatures went from split to Republican control. Those changes leave 32 legislatures in Republican control, 14 controlled by Democrats and three split between the two parties.

     

    Source: National Conference of State Legislatures

    Soda Tax Measures Start Of National Movement?

    Among the more notable local ballot measures contested on Nov. 8 were proposed soda taxes in three California cities and Boulder, Colorado. Despite $40 million in spending from soda giants like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, Boulder’s Measure 2H, a levy of two cents per ounce on sugary drinks, passed with 54 percent voter support, while the three California measures - San Francisco’s Measure V, Oakland’s Measure HH and Albany’s Measure 01, all imposing a tax of a penny per ounce - passed with over 60 percent support.

     

    “This is an astonishing repudiation of Big Soda,” said Jim Krieger, executive director of Healthy Food America. “For too long, the big soda companies got away with putting profits over their customers’ health.”

     

    The American Beverage Association, which coordinated the campaigns in opposition to the soda tax measures in all four cities, said it respected the decisions of the four cities’ voters but was also committed to reformulating and broadening the range of its products to address consumer health concerns.

     

    “Our energy remains squarely focused on reducing the sugar consumed from beverages,” a spokeswoman for the association said in a statement.

     

    But Larry Tramutola, a political strategist who organized the campaigns in support of the soda tax measures in San Francisco and Oakland, said, “This is the start of a national movement.”

     

    Michael Jacobson, co-founder and president of the Center for Science in the Public Interest in Washington, likewise, said, “I’m sure that other cities and states will look at this and put tax measures before their legislatures.”

     

    “Legislators will say, ‘We get a twofer: balance the budget and improve public health.’”

     

    Berkeley, California became the first city to pass a soda tax in 2014, with voters’ approval of Measure D. Philadelphia’s City Council approved a soda tax this past June. And just days after passage of the California and Colorado ballot measures, the Board of Commissioners of Cook County, Illinois, home to Chicago, narrowly passed a soda tax. (FORBES, REUTERS, BOULDER COUNTY CLERK’S OFFICE)

    Consultants Recommend OK Curb Wind Power Incentive

    The most significant recommendation this month from a consulting firm hired by Oklahoma to review the hundreds of millions of dollars in business incentives it doles out every year was to limit an income tax credit for wind-power electric generating plants.

     

    The PFM Group of Philadelphia informed the state’s Incentive Evaluation Commission that although the state benefited somewhat from its Wind Power Tax Credit - one of the state’s fastest growing incentives, which cost it $113 million in fiscal year 2014 - in the form of cheaper electricity, most of that benefit was actually reaped by utility customers in other states. Randall Bauer, a former Iowa state budget director who is heading up PFM’s team in Oklahoma, also said the state had already met its initial objective of deriving 15 percent of its electricity from wind power, and allowing the credit to keep growing unchecked threatened the state’s fiscal health, with its cost likely to top $100 million for years to come.

     

    “You’re looking at a significant financial impact for the state for a long time,” he told the commission. “This window is still open, and we think you need to close it.”

     

    PFM recommended the state stop allowing new wind plants to qualify for the credit in 2018, two years ahead of schedule, or cap the total amount of the credit available each year at a lower level.

     

    The firm also recommended the state repeal two other business incentives, one for producing films and TV shows in the state and the other for making improvements to access roads to industrial facilities. But last fiscal year the former incentive cost the state less than $1 million and the latter cost it nothing at all, although it cost about $2 million in fiscal year 2014.

     

    The chairman of the Incentive Evaluation Commission, Lyle Roggow, acknowledged that some might have been hoping for more from PFM’s evaluation.

     

    “If we look at this from a realistic approach, nothing happens as fast or as suddenly as what you may envision,” he said. “There’s a stepdown process. It may take a few years.”

     

    A public hearing on PFM’s recommendations was scheduled for Nov. 10. And the panel plans to forward the recommendations to Gov. Mary Fallin (R) and state lawmakers for possible legislative action next session. (OKLAHOMAWATCH.ORG, LEXISNEXIS STATE NET)

    Budgets In Brief - November 14 2016

    AR Gov Outlines State Budget

    ARKANSAS Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) outlined a budget proposal for state lawmakers last week that includes a $50 million tax cut and increased funding for education and foster care but no money for executive and legislative General Improvement Funds. (ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT-GAZETTE [LITTLE ROCK], LEXISNEXIS STATE NET)

    LA Seeking $4B More in Federal Flood Relief

    LOUISIANA Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is seeking $4 billion in federal recovery funding on top of the $438 million the state has already received from the federal government for rebuilding necessitated by flooding in the state in March and August. The governor requested $2.6 billion in October but increased the amount after further assessment of the damage (TIMES-PICAYUNE [NEW ORLEANS], LEXISNEXIS STATE NET)

     

    - Compiled by KOREY CLARK

    Only The Usual Disruptions On Election Day

    Election Day didn’t come off entirely without a hitch last week. Among the more consequential occurrences was the breakdown of a computerized voter registration system in some precincts of Durham County, North Carolina, causing long lines in some places. There was a “two-and-one-half-hour wait at 3 p.m.” at North Carolina Central University, according to Gunther Peck, an associate professor of history at Duke University.

     

    “Only 240 people had voted as of 4 p.m., and it should have been 500,” he said. “Dozens of students had to leave. It was good for Donald Trump, no doubt about that.”

     

    There were complaints of long lines at polling places in other states as well, including New Hampshire, Missouri and Virginia.

     

    The nonpartisan Election Protection coalition, which among other things operates a voter headline, said it also fielded over 30,000 complaints by early evening on Election Day, including reports of voters being directed to the wrong polling place, being told their names had been removed from voter rolls, or being incorrectly instructed to fill out a provisional ballot or show identification.

     

    But there don’t appear to have been any organized efforts to disrupt the election, such as hackers targeting voting or registration systems.

     

    “It’s pretty much what we’d expect to see,” said David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research. “There are scattered indications of machine breakdowns that are being addressed.” (NEW YORK TIMES)

     

    NJ Takes Over Atlantic City

    A week after deeming Atlantic City’s proposed five-year turnaround plan insufficient to return the struggling resort city to financial stability, the state of New Jersey took over control of the city’s main governmental functions. The state will now be free to sell city assets, including its water utility and a former airport, as well as reverse decisions made by the City Council and break union contracts, among other things.

     

    Community activist Steve Young expressed his displeasure with the state’s action in topical terms.

     

    “This is an example of what this country could turn out to be under Chris Christie and President-Elect Donald Trump, taking away our rights and sovereignty,” he said. “What will government look like with the state of New Jersey overpowering the residents? We are headed for some bad times, and your city could be next.”

     

    Atlantic City Mayor Don Guardian said the city might ultimately challenge the state takeover in court but it would give the state an opportunity to present its vision first. (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

    Politics In Brief - November 14 2016

    HI Senate to be Controlled Exclusively by Dems

    HAWAII’s sole Senate Republican Sam Slom was defeated by Democrat Stanley Chang on Nov. 8. As a result, the state’s 25-member Senate will become the nation’s first single-party chamber since 1980, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. (CIVIL BEAT [HONOLULU])

    KS Survive Retention Battle

    All five KANSAS Supreme Court justices who faced retention elections last week appear to have survived those votes. Conservatives had campaigned to remove the justices for their decisions on school funding and a recent death penalty case, as well as an impending ruling on abortion, but no justice has ever been removed in the decades that the state’s retention system has been in place. (TOPEKA CAPITAL-JOURNAL)

     

    -- Compiled by KOREY CLARK

    GOP Gains More Governorships

    In another huge electoral night for Republicans, the GOP picked up three additional governorships, with at least one more race too close to call. The party gained the chief executive office in three states previously held by Democrats – Vermont, New Hampshire and Missouri – while holding on to the governor’s office in Utah, North Dakota and Indiana. Democrats retained their position in Delaware, West Virginia, Oregon, Montana and Washington. Meanwhile, the hotly contested race in North Carolina between GOP incumbent Pat McCrory and Democratic challenger State Attorney General Roy Cooper appears headed to a recount (see following story). The wins give Republicans the governor’s office in at least 33 states, pending the North Carolina results. (TIME, WASHINGTON POST)

    McCrory Prepares for Recount Battle in NC

    North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R) filed paperwork last Thursday to establish a legal defense fund in preparation for an expected legal battle over Tuesday’s election. Democratic challenger Attorney General Roy Cooper, who now holds a slight lead, has declared victory. But as of press time his lead was only about 10,000 votes, much less than the estimated number of absentee ballots yet to be counted across the Tar Heel State’s 100 counties. A final tally is not expected until as late as Nov. 18 (ABC11.COM [RALEIGH], CHARLOTTE OBSERVER).

    Governors In Brief - November 14 2016

    Oregon Elects First LGBTQ Governor

    OREGON Gov. Kate Brown’s (D) re-election marks the first time an openly LGBTQ person has been elected governor in any state. Brown is bi-sexual. She was looking to fill out the remainder of former Gov. John Kitzhaber’s (D) term after his resignation in February 2015, and her win guarantees her two more years in office. She has already said she will seek a full term of her own in 2018. (TIME, REUTERS, OREGONLIVE.COM)

    MO Elects First Jewish Governor

    Voters in MISSOURI also made local history, electing the Show Me State’s first Jewish governor. Republican Eric Greitens is a former U.S. Navy Seal who defeated Democrat Attorney General Chris Koster. (TABLET MAGAZINE)

     

    -- Compiled by RICH EHISEN

    Business - November 14 2016

    Business In Pennsylvania

    A PENNSYLVANIA court rules that employee drug tests are not confidential. The court ruled that a Keystone State law barring disclosure of patients’ substance abuse and addiction treatment records to third parties does not apply to employee drug and alcohol test results (WASHINGTON POST).

    Business In California

    A CALIFORNIA court upholds a Golden State law that keeps private the personal identifying information of those applying to take the state bar exam (SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE).

    Health & Science - November 14 2016

    Health In Mississippi

    A federal judge in MISSISSIPPI temporarily blocks a new rule from the Obama administration that gives patients at federally funded nursing homes the right to settle disputes in court. The rule issued by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) prohibits any nursing home that accepts Medicare or Medicaid funds from putting pre-dispute arbitration clauses in resident contracts (THE HILL [WASHINGTON D.C.]).

     

    -- Compiled by RICH EHISEN

    Highway Robbery

    Last week California voters handily endorsed Proposition 63, a ballot measure to regulate ammunition being sold in the Golden State. In the days leading up to the election, voters received a slick, glossy mailer featuring Senate President pro Tem Kevin de Léon that urged folks to endorse the measure. It also touts de Léon’s previous work on gun control, which has been one of his big ticket items since entering the Senate. Alas, as the Sacramento Bee reports, the mailer was pretty much a blatant hijacking of the proposition, which was actually the brainchild of California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom. Which was very bold given that de Léon had once tried to get Newsom to pull the measure off the ballot. It was just the latest shot, so to speak, in an ongoing feud between the two over who gets ownership of the gun control issue. At least nobody has suggested a duel to settle things. Yet.

    Hillary Got Gored

    Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said he stuck to his plan to not cast a vote for president last week. As the Boston Herald reports, it was a first for Baker, which he noted left him “disappointed.” Here’s guessing it wasn’t half the disappointment felt by folks who cast a ballot for Hillary Clinton, who easily won the popular vote but lost the all-important Electoral College.

     

    -- By RICH EHISEN

    Creating a Sustainable PR Strategy

     It's not enough to only score Public Relations victories when there is a new product to promote or a major news event to link. Keeping excitement for a brand at a simmering level for a long time keeps companies in touch with news providers and the public at large, and there are plenty of actions PR departments and agencies can take to maintain a presence.

    Maintaining a PR presence over time can be tricky as there just isn't a major internal announcement or external event constantly to piggyback with messaging. It's hard to predict how long down times will last, so it's much better to have a sustainable PR strategy in place-- one that will keep evolving over time rather than burning out and having to build up from nothing when it's time to make a splash.

    PR that Suits Business Goals


    Instead of running an opportunistic PR strategy that only ramps up during new product launches or major media frenzies, it's better to create a strategy that responds to a constant stream of goals provided by the business's leaders. According to Business.com, there should be strong ties in place between overall objectives and PR activity.

    When companies are pursuing a certain kind of growth - whether targeting a specific audience, growing a customer base or any other type of expansion - PR can be used as a tactical asset. Business.com added that PR success today can also come from close integration with the marketing team.

    With what and how should marketers and PR professionals collaborate? Well, content generated by modern marketers makes great fodder for PR campaigns. Pushing high-quality, fresh content out through media channels can create a reputation for thought leadership, and in a world where consumers are making decisions about what companies to work with, this can be an overall boost to the brand’s reputation.

    Marketers may also have a sense of trends within their industry and across complementary industries to tap into some new stories and fresh content. Leveraging marketing department content creation and thought leadership as fuel for PR outreach and releases gives departments the ability to keep up constant contact and strong ties with outlets, even between news cycles.

     

    Expanding Channels and Reach


    There are many ways to gradually expand a PR strategy and try out new tactics between major events, and they tend to contribute to better overall results over time. PRWeek recently listed takeaways from industry insiders speaking at the news source's annual conference, and they included exciting new ways to improve a department's performance gradually and over time.

    For example, it's always a good time to try out a new communication platform. Experimenting with new ways to spread branded messages means ensuring that no opportunity for engagement slips through the cracks. At the conference, GE communications officers explained that the rewards of discovering a valuable new platform outweigh the danger of ending up at a dead end. If a PR strategy feels stagnant or like it's in a holding pattern, it may be time to add a new channel or technology.

    The PRWeek conference also yielded evidence that the model of marketing departments and PR teams working closely in concert is being widely accepted throughout the industry. Organizations are realizing the value proposition of PR at the highest levels and giving departments more responsibility and leeway. This means it's time to step up and provide consistent value with this newfound power.

    PR for All Seasons


    PR leaders can have a powerful impact on an organization's public image and perception. The actions they take between major campaigns and product launches can be transformative in their own way and are worth extra consideration and support from all levels of the organization. Becoming the creative face of the company is a heavy yet worthwhile responsibility.

    Departments that succeed in these objectives will likely have the right tools for the job. If leaders are unable to monitor their own outreach efforts or industry talk in general, they may end up making missteps or unforced errors during their efforts to reach out.

    Media monitoring and media intelligence systems should encompass all channels, new and old, due to the fact that the news cycle today has many facets. Just as they should reach out on more platforms, leaders should keep many different outlets under constant observation.

    3 Ways to Apply This Information Now

    1. Keep up with the media buzz with a media monitoring and analytics solution like LexisNexis Newsdesk®.  
    2. Check out other posts relating to PR and to see how we’re using LexisNexis Newsdesk to track a number of topics.
    3. Share this blog on LinkedIn to keep the dialogue going with your colleagues and contacts

    Here’s Why Your Due Diligence Needs to Encompass Forced Labor Risk

    Earlier this year, the BBC reported on the use of forced labor on construction projects as Qatar prepares to host the biggest soccer matches of 2022. Citing Amnesty International ‘s interviews with more than 200 migrant workers employed in and around the future stadium, the BBC noted that abuses ranged from demands that workers pay recruitment fees of up to $4,300 to the withholding of wages and confiscation of passports to prevent workers from leaving. The sad truth? Forced labor in the construction industry is far more common than you might think—and companies need to implement a risk assessment and due diligence process to address modern slavery. Check out some of the facts in our infographic below:

     

    Bringing an end to forced labor in the construction industry won’t be easy. But if governments, NGOs and companies collaborate together, we can make it harder for unethical individuals to profit from the exploitation of vulnerable men, women and children around the world. 

    How can we build a better world?

    Get our complimentary in-depth report for more information including what companies are doing to combat modern slavery.

     

     3 Ways to Apply This Information Now

    1. Download our in-depth report on forced labor in the construction industry.
    2. Check out this on-demand Sourcing Industry Group (SIG) webinar on implementing a due diligence strategy to support ethical sourcing initiatives.  
    3. Share this blog on LinkedIn to keep the dialogue going with your colleagues and contacts. 

    Top 10 Tips for #GivingTuesday Success

     Guest written by: John Haydon
    Co-Authored by: Kari Abitbol 

    #GivingTuesday, a global day of giving fueled by social media, is growing in popularity as a major opportunity for nonprofits to capitalize on the generous spirit of the holiday season. Timed to contrast the commercialization of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, #GivingTuesday generated $116 million from 700,000 people across 70 countries just last year.

    We recently hosted a webinar with John Haydon, a digital marketing and fundraising expert, which offered proven tips for successful #GivingTuesday campaigns. Below are some of his key takeaways:

    1. Prioritize Email – Email is the most cost-effective and lucrative channel for fundraising, especially when it comes to time-sensitive campaigns such as #GivingTuesday. When people sign up for email notifications, they are effectively inviting you into their inbox. This is why 34% of all online revenue for the top 25 nonprofits can be linked directly to an email.
       
    2. Issue a Welcome Series – When welcoming new subscribers, remember to ease them into your communications. It has been shown that the most effective way to do this is through a series of three welcome emails. This helps to educate people on who you are and what you do as well provide them the opportunity to get involved and contribute.
       
    3. Understand Your People – Before issuing any sort of communication, you must understand who you are targeting. Haydon recommends focusing on several key groups—first-time and repeat donors, small, mid-sized and major donors—and customizing messages for each group by what motivates them to support your cause.
       
    4. Use Your Database – Don’t forget to utilize your existing tools. Your donor database can help identify who is most likely to contribute, what events they have attended and other information that is key in understanding giving motivations.
       
    5. Collect Survey Information – Issue a one or two-question survey after someone has contributed asking why they donated. These survey results offer deeper insight into donor motivation that will guide future giving campaigns.
       
    6. Develop Your Story – Storytelling is a key component in modern-day fundraising. Haydon advises fundraisers to keep in mind three factors when developing a story: hook, which prompts an emotional reaction; hold, which presents a problem that needs to be solved; and payoff, which gives the prospect an opportunity to be the protagonist. Haydon also advises fundraisers to formulate a #GivingTuesday hook with a unique angle that competitors have not yet done.
       
    7. Write Down Your Plan – Preparing a written plan has been proven to generate more success. Make sure to identify who you are going to target from your database, map out what motivates them and include any partners and sponsors who can help realize your goal.
       
    8. Include a Timeline – A campaign timeline should include several key markers: soft launch to core supporters, hard launch to community, promotions and offers, event dates and a drop-dead date. The soft launch is of the utmost importance as this can provide vital feedback and concerns before the full launch to the broader community. It is particularly crucial to troubleshoot ahead of #GivingTuesday since it is a 24-hour campaign.
       
    9. Take Action on Your Plan – Create valuable and relevant content that supports your campaign and include in your web, email and social media campaigns. Images and videos are especially beneficial for storytelling and can be easily done using your mobile device.
       
    10. Create a Donor Circle – A donor circle is a small, hand-picked group of core donors that you can meet with once every quarter to gather feedback. Asking them questions about your communication, ways in which you can improve and other suggestions can provide valuable insight to improve future giving campaigns.

     

    3 Ways to Apply This Information Now

    1. Listen to our webinar recording and take advantage of a 25% discount on LexisNexis® for Development Professionals subscriptions elected by December 30, 2016.
    2. Arrange a personal demo to learn how LexisNexis® for Development Professionals can help you build a robust donor database to target with #GivingTuesday and other fundraising campaigns.
    3. Share this blog to keep the dialogue going with your colleagues and contacts.

    States Seek To Plug Retirement Gaps

     Retirement has become a distant dream for millions of Americans. Nearly half of American families lack any retirement savings, according to the Economic Policy Institute. Pensions with defined benefits have become a rarity in the private sector and savings in Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) have not kept pace with retirement needs.

     

    With California in the forefront, states are beginning to address retirement security. California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) on Sept. 29 signed into law a measure (SB 1234) by Senate president Kevin de Leon (D) that will provide retirement savings to nearly seven million small-business employees who lack workplace coverage. Seven other states have approved retirement savings plans, and since 2012 more than 30 states overall have considered them.

     

    Under the California law, employees without a workplace retirement plan will automatically contribute 3 percent of wages to the California Secure Choice Retirement Savings Trust. Workers can change contribution levels at any time, or choose not to participate. Companies with five or more employees are required to participate. The legislation prohibits the state or employers from incurring any liabilities associated with the new program.

     

    California Secure Choice was made possible by a U.S. Department of Labor ruling, enabling the state to run its program without conforming to the federal employee’s benefits law, known as ERISA. Its passage was hailed as “a watershed moment” by Sarah Mysiewicz Gill of the AARP who said California’s action will spur additional states to go ahead with their own savings plans.

    Because of California’s diversity and population — 39 million in the latest estimate — it will be by far the largest state laboratory for experimenting with the retirement savings idea. But it is not the only one. Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon have created retirement plans for private-sector workers that will take effect in 2017 or 2018. Massachusetts provides retirement plans to nonprofit employees and is studying the feasibility of doing so for all private-sector employees. Both Washington and New Jersey are establishing state-run online marketplaces that offer low-cost retirement savings plans to small businesses.

     

    Some critics are skeptical. They observe that public retirement plans in California have huge unfunded liabilities and have not met ambitious investment targets in the marketplace. The Investment Company Institute contends that the California plan makes rosy assumptions about how much money workers would save and how many of them will stay in the plan.

     

    There is also an open question of how trustees of California Secure Choice will invest the savings. Some have suggested a low-risk strategy of investing in long-term U.S. securities. While such a strategy would be unlikely to keep pace with inflation, it would still be a benefit to families without any retirement savings.

     

    Unfortunately, such families amount to 49 percent of U.S. families, according to the findings of the Economic Policy Institute. The average retirement savings of all American families is $95,776, the EPI found, but this number is less impressive than it sounds because the median — the 50th percentile — is only $5,000. The median is lowest for families in the 32 to 37 age range, a dismal $480. For families in the 56 to 61 age range, those nearest retirement, the median is $17,000.

     

    The shortfall in retirement savings has many causes. Foremost is the decline of defined-benefit pensions for workers in the private sector, a decline caused by changes in the economy and a series of laws passed by Congress during the 1980s that discouraged pensions and favored IRAs. Fifty years ago 88 percent of private sector workers had defined-benefit pensions; the percentage now is 30 and falling. The pension falloff has been especially harmful to low-income workers, many of whom do not have alternative retirement plans.

     

    More than 20 million Americans have IRAs invested in the stock market that lost ground during the Great Recession of 2008-09 and in many cases have not fully made up for these losses.

     

    Wage stagnation has also impacted retirement savings. For many Americans, inflation-adjusted figures are about where they were in the 1970s. The combination of wage stagnation and pension decline may have impacted the recent presidential election in which many working-class voters cast ballots for Donald Trump.

     

    Writing in the Washington Post, Rep. Debbie Dingell, a Democrat from Michigan, said: “[These voters] don’t feel better off. Their real wages have not risen in decades, and in fact for many it has dropped. They have less purchasing power; their health care costs more; they don’t trust their pensions to be there...they are frightened that something bad could happen at any time.” Trump won Michigan, home of the auto industry and normally a Democratic stronghold, by a razor-thin 13,107 votes out of 4,785,223 votes cast.

     

    For many retirees Social Security payments, averaging about $1,300 a month, are their sole income. Since 2010, Social Security has been running a deficit, with tax revenues falling short of the benefits being paid out. Unless changes are made, the Social Security fund is expected to run out of funds by 2034, at which point retirees would receive just 80 percent of their benefits. Surveys have found that many millennials do not expect Social Security to be available when they retire.

     

    Social Security was last reformed by a bi-partisan bill signed into law on April 20, 1983 by President Ronald Reagan at a ceremony on the White House south lawn at which House Speaker Thomas P. O’Neill called the measure “a happy day for America.”

     

    Such bi-partisan approaches have been notably lacking in the 21st century. Maya MacGuineas, president of the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget lamented recently that Congress and President Barack Obama shared responsibility for “eight years of lost opportunity to make Social Security structurally sound.” President-elect Trump and a Republican Congress will now have their opportunity.

     

    In this uncertain context, any move to expand retirement savings is welcome, and the nation will be watching as California takes the lead in state-run retirement.

     

    The key to the success of California Secure Choice may be automatic enrollment. Firms that provide IRAs have found that employees are unlikely to enroll unless employers sign them up and provide a payroll deduction. “Having 401(k) auto-enrollment and default contributions is essential in making savings happen,” Harvard public-policy professor Brigitte Madrian, an expert on behavioral finance, told Time magazine.

     

    If these savings do indeed happen in California, look for other states to follow the example of the Golden State.

    States Offering Retirement Plans To Private-Sector Workers

     In September California became the eighth state to pass a retirement savings plan for private-sector workers, since Massachusetts became the first to do so in 2012, according to Georgetown University’s Center for Retirement Initiatives. Another 18 states have considered private-sector retirement plans or studies of such plans this year.

     

    Source: Center for Retirement Initiatives

    Trump Tax Plan Similar To ‘Real-Live Experiment’ In KS

    To stimulate America’s economy, President-elect Donald Trump wants to cut personal income and business taxes by about $6 trillion over the next decade, a little more than 10 percent of federal revenues. That plan seems to be music to the ears of Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R), who engineered the passage of a relatively similar tax plan - which he described as a “real-live experiment” - in his state in 2012.

     

    “I am pleased the President-elect understands the importance of revitalizing the American economy by creating an environment that keeps jobs in America and encourages the growth of both large and small businesses,” the governor said in a statement to the Wichita Eagle. “Just as we did in Kansas, the President-elect intends to lower taxes on both individual Americans who are working hard to build a future for themselves and their families, and create a favorable environment for the small businesses that drive growth and create jobs. The national economy has been lethargic for a long time and it is good the President-elect wants to take decisive actions to move our nation forward.”

     

    By several measures, however, Brownback’s “real-live experiment” has been a major failure. Kansas is facing budget shortfalls of nearly $350 million this fiscal year and $583 next, or possibly even more if the state’s Supreme Court orders additional spending to resolve an ongoing school finance lawsuit. The state has already had to make cuts to government agencies, universities, highway projects and its pension system. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia recently ranked the state 50th in the nation in an index that combines four state-level economic indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements.” An economist with the conservative Tax Foundation told Mississippi lawmakers considering tax cuts that Kansas is “an example of what not to do in tax reform.” And even some top Republican Kansas lawmakers support repealing the state’s tax cuts.

     

    “In Kansas, the state budget is broken,” said Duane Goossen, a budget director under both Republican and Democratic governors and a senior fellow at the Kansas Center for Economic Growth, which has consistently opposed the current governor’s policies.

     

    Brownback’s and Trump’s tax policies are both based on “trickle-down economics,” also known as “Reaganomics,” because Ronald Reagan successfully used the economic principles to expand the U.S. economy during his presidency. But the Eagle found there was little trickling down in Kansas, with taxes actually increasing slightly for the state’s poorest residents.

     

    There’s one major difference between the federal government and Kansas, however: the federal government doesn’t have to balance its budget. In fact the size of the national debt nearly tripled under Reagan. To avoid ballooning it further, Trump might have to significantly cut spending, especially if, as in Kansas, the tax cuts don’t lead to economic growth.

     

    “Trump will have to decide: ‘Is this the size of the tax cut that I want, which requires a lot of spending cuts?’” said Kyle Pomerleau, director of federal projects at the Tax Foundation. (WICHITA EAGLE, LAWRENCE JOURNAL-WORLD, KANSAS HEALTH INSTITUTE, WASHINGTON POST, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA, ASSOCIATED PRESS)

    Trump’s Infrastructure Plan Faces Potholes

    On election night President-elect Donald Trump told a crowd of cheering supporters: “We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.”

     

    It’s an admirable goal, but one that also falls squarely into the category of much easier said than done. Over the next 10 years, it will cost over $3.3 trillion just to keep up with infrastructure repairs, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers. And at current funding levels, the nation will fall more than $1.4 trillion short of that figure, the group said. By 2040 the shortfall could exceed $5 trillion.

     

    Although Trump has given few specifics about his infrastructure plan, he evidently intends to rely on private investment to pay for it. According to a briefing paper drafted by two of his advisors, Wilbur Ross, an investor, and Peter Navarro, a professor of business at the University of California at Irvine, the president-elect’s plan would provide generous tax credits to investors who finance public projects, on top of the existing programs designed to attract such investors.

     

    “We believe that this tax credit-assisted program could help finance up to a trillion dollars’ worth of projects over a 10-year period,” Ross and Navarro wrote.

     

    Thirty-six road projects have been financed through private investment over the past 25 years, according to a recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). But of the 14 that have been completed, three have declared bankruptcy and a fourth forced a government buyout of the private partners. The CBO report also said that the 36 public-private projects comprised only $32 billion in investment, less than 1 percent of the roughly $4 trillion spent on highway projects over that 25-year period.

     

    And roads are just one category of infrastructure badly in need of repair; there are also schools, hospitals, power grids and other systems. Consequently, some believe relying on private financing would limit the scale of any rebuilding plan. As Richard Fierce, senior vice president of the engineering and construction firm Fluor Corp. told a Congressional committee two years ago, public-private partnerships are “no replacement for direct federal funding,” and any project “requires a reliable revenue stream for the project to be viable.”

     

    “No amount of magic makes an un-financeable project financeable,” he said. (CNBC, BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK)

    GA To Consider Tax On Non-Citizens

    A bill appears to be on the way in Georgia that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution described as that state’s “first piece of Trump-era legislation.” According to the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which advocates for immigration restrictions, the bill, which has a sponsor, Rep. Jeff Jones (R), but hasn’t been filed yet, would impose a fee of 2 percent on personal wire transfers of money out of state. The fee would be reimbursed to payers who file state income tax returns but not to those who don’t, including “aliens, many of them in illegal status” and “drug dealers, as well, whatever their status.”

     

    CIS estimates the fee would generate $100 million in revenue for Georgia, based on a similar levy that has been in place in Oklahoma for years. And CIS said the “beauty of the program” is that it would tax money that is mostly going untaxed now and potentially require reimbursement of only a small percentage of the fees collected, based again on Oklahoma’s system.

     

    “So the transfer fee will cost law-abiding taxpayers little or nothing, but will collect most of its revenues from previously untaxed sources, including a lot from the incomes of illegal aliens,” CIS stated. (ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION, CENTER FOR IMMIGRATION STUDIES)