STATE NET® THOUGHT LEADERSHIP SERIES

How Historical Adoption Rates Hold the Key to Forecasting Future Regulatory Action

Just as state legislatures vary in their bill passage rates, some state agencies adopt far more of the rules they propose than others. The reasons for that disparity are even more difficult to discern than with the legislative process, but understanding how they shape adoption rate patterns is no less critical for organizations seeking to comply with the regulations or engage in the rulemaking process of any state. That knowledge is the foundation of the analytics tools developed by LexisNexis® State Net® to support legislative and now regulatory forecasting.

Historical Adoption Patterns Deliver Key Indicators

Pioneering research by State Net® beginning in the 1980s revealed that in spite of their diversity, legislative passage rates “remain highly consistent from session to session,” varying less than 2% over multiple bienniums. Rigorous tracking of regulatory actions from proposal to adoption over the past four decades has now made it possible for State Net® to document similar historical rule adoption patterns. “Just as we were surprised by the unyielding consistency in legislative passage rates, our analysis of regulatory adoption reveals an equally rigid pattern across agencies and states,” said Crain. “This stability, despite the processes’ diversity, provides a strong foundation for determining the timing and likelihood of rule adoption.

Regulatory Analytics Driven by Knowledge

State Net has now built predictive models for every state agency that proposes regulations—8,992 forecasts in all—drawing on key indicator analytics derived from decades of regulatory activity and employing advanced machine learning. The graphic visualizations of these predictive models, along with other indicators, can provide important insights about pending rules, such as their likelihood of adoption or whether consideration is moving faster or slower than usual. By simply using these tools—and the State Net platform’s powerful searching and tracking capabilities across state, federal and local agencies—users gain access to extensive knowledge of regulatory processes, helping them make more informed data-supported decisions.

Download the latest State Net Capitol Journal thought leadership article to learn more.