SSA Actuary on Financial Effects of Immigration Executive Action

"I am writing in response to your request for estimates of the financial effects on Social Security of the President’s Executive Actions for immigration announced November 20, 2014. The preliminary estimates and analysis provided in this letter reflect our careful analysis to date of these complex provisions. We received valuable assistance in interpreting these executive actions from Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA). These estimates provide expected numbers of individuals approved under or otherwise affected by the specified actions, the effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment in the U.S. economy, the effects on workers covered by Social Security who make payroll tax contributions to the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds, the effects on numbers of OASDI beneficiaries, and the change in OASDI tax income and program cost. We based these estimates on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report and on information provided by DHS and other sources in December 2014 regarding populations potentially affected and likely timing of implementation. These specifications are evolving and so are subject to possible modification in the future." - SSA, OACT, Feb. 2, 2015.